NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR CCU
Points 80.8 70.8
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.6 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 20.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 14.2
Shooting UALR CCU
Field Goals Made 29.6 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.5 59.5
Field Goal % 45.8% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 13.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 20.5
Free Throw % 73.1% 69.4%
Ball Control UALR CCU
Rebounds 39.1 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.0
Turnovers 9.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.3
Steals 6.6 4.8
Fouls 14.4 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR CCU
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 71.6
% of Possessions with UALR CCU
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 24.4%
Player Fouled 18.2% 19.6%
Turnover 12.4% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR CCU
Shot Blocked 3.9% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 26.5%