NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR DUQ
Points 65.4 72.0
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 24.3
Points From Free Throws 12.4 15.3
Shooting UALR DUQ
Field Goals Made 24.0 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 56.8
Field Goal % 43.0% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 12.4 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 20.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 73.4%
Ball Control UALR DUQ
Rebounds 35.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.2
Turnovers 13.3 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.2
Steals 5.0 7.0
Fouls 15.4 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR DUQ
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 69.3
% of Possessions with UALR DUQ
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 28.9%
Player Fouled 19.8% 22.1%
Turnover 19.1% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR DUQ
Shot Blocked 7.6% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 28.8%