NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY GASO
Points 81.1 75.5
Total Points   156.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 27.3
Points From Free Throws 25.1 15.0
Shooting TROY GASO
Field Goals Made 24.1 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 56.1
Field Goal % 43.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 24.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 25.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 34.2 21.0
Free Throw % 73.4% 71.5%
Ball Control TROY GASO
Rebounds 37.8 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 22.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.5 9.5
Turnovers 12.5 15.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.4
Steals 10.1 7.3
Fouls 16.1 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY GASO
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 69.5
% of Possessions with TROY GASO
2 Point Attempt 36.8% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 28.0%
Player Fouled 26.1% 21.5%
Turnover 16.6% 20.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 13.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY GASO
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 37.6% 28.1%