NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY JVST
Points 72.9 66.5
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 13.8
Points From Free Throws 17.8 17.0
Shooting TROY JVST
Field Goals Made 23.6 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 51.5
Field Goal % 44.5% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 14.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 17.8 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 24.7
Free Throw % 73.4% 68.8%
Ball Control TROY JVST
Rebounds 31.6 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.3
Turnovers 12.4 14.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.7
Steals 9.5 7.5
Fouls 17.4 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY JVST
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 67.6
% of Possessions with TROY JVST
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 17.1%
Player Fouled 23.4% 24.5%
Turnover 17.5% 20.8%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 13.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY JVST
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 33.7%