NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USC CAL
Points 78.1 73.4
Total Points   151.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 29.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 30.1
Points From Free Throws 14.7 13.9
Shooting USC CAL
Field Goals Made 27.7 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 62.9
Field Goal % 45.9% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 42.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 28.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 14.7 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 19.0
Free Throw % 69.5% 73.2%
Ball Control USC CAL
Rebounds 38.7 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 11.1
Turnovers 10.3 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.1 2.7
Steals 6.2 5.9
Fouls 14.3 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USC CAL
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 74.2
% of Possessions with USC CAL
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 32.1%
Player Fouled 20.6% 19.2%
Turnover 13.8% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USC CAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 27.4%