NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR TNTC
Points 71.5 65.0
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 22.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 29.5
Points From Free Throws 9.2 12.7
Shooting UALR TNTC
Field Goals Made 28.0 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 56.7
Field Goal % 44.6% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 11.4
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 27.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 41.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 29.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 9.2 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 18.1
Free Throw % 72.7% 70.4%
Ball Control UALR TNTC
Rebounds 39.0 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.2
Turnovers 10.3 12.9
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.0
Steals 8.7 6.6
Fouls 12.9 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Little Rock

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR TNTC
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 67.7
% of Possessions with UALR TNTC
2 Point Attempt 55.3% 33.4%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 35.2%
Player Fouled 15.8% 18.3%
Turnover 14.6% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 12.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR TNTC
Shot Blocked 3.7% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 26.9%