NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USC STJOE
Points 75.5 73.3
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 26.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 34.6
Points From Free Throws 12.8 12.4
Shooting USC STJOE
Field Goals Made 27.5 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 60.7
Field Goal % 45.9% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 13.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 31.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 12.8 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 17.3
Free Throw % 69.5% 71.9%
Ball Control USC STJOE
Rebounds 38.4 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.2
Turnovers 11.4 11.8
Blocked Shots 6.4 3.4
Steals 7.5 6.8
Fouls 13.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USC STJOE
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 70.6
% of Possessions with USC STJOE
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 34.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 36.6%
Player Fouled 19.1% 19.1%
Turnover 15.8% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USC STJOE
Shot Blocked 5.7% 10.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 26.9%