NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY USA
Points 80.5 74.6
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 23.1
Points From Free Throws 18.5 15.1
Shooting TROY USA
Field Goals Made 27.1 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 55.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 18.5 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 20.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 74.7%
Ball Control TROY USA
Rebounds 38.2 29.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 6.5
Turnovers 12.0 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.7
Steals 9.7 7.0
Fouls 16.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY USA
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.7 67.7
% of Possessions with TROY USA
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 24.4%
Player Fouled 21.3% 21.4%
Turnover 16.1% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 13.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY USA
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.4% 20.0%