NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR WIU
Points 71.2 62.5
Total Points   133.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 26.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 24.5
Points From Free Throws 11.5 12.0
Shooting UALR WIU
Field Goals Made 26.5 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 54.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 38.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 44.1 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 40.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 17.2
Free Throw % 72.7% 69.5%
Ball Control UALR WIU
Rebounds 37.8 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 10.6
Turnovers 9.4 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.9 2.9
Steals 7.9 5.7
Fouls 12.9 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Little Rock

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR WIU
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 65.7
% of Possessions with UALR WIU
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 27.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 19.0%
Turnover 13.8% 19.3%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR WIU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 29.2%