NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY UTA
Points 74.8 76.6
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 25.0
Points From Free Throws 21.5 20.3
Shooting TROY UTA
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 51.9
Field Goal % 41.6% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 29.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 21.5 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 29.3 27.5
Free Throw % 73.4% 73.6%
Ball Control TROY UTA
Rebounds 32.5 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.8
Turnovers 14.0 16.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.7
Steals 9.9 8.0
Fouls 19.9 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY UTA
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 69.7
% of Possessions with TROY UTA
2 Point Attempt 36.9% 33.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 26.1%
Player Fouled 25.9% 26.4%
Turnover 18.5% 22.1%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 13.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY UTA
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.1% 33.7%