NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY UTA
Points 67.7 72.6
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 28.3
Points From Free Throws 14.1 11.1
Shooting TROY UTA
Field Goals Made 23.2 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 62.6
Field Goal % 39.7% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 43.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 14.1 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 15.2
Free Throw % 68.8% 72.9%
Ball Control TROY UTA
Rebounds 40.9 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 9.2
Turnovers 13.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.6 6.4
Steals 4.6 8.8
Fouls 13.0 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Arlington

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY UTA
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 71.9
% of Possessions with TROY UTA
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 29.5%
Player Fouled 21.7% 17.9%
Turnover 18.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 12.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY UTA
Shot Blocked 10.4% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 23.9%