NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY ULL
Points 72.8 74.8
Total Points   147.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 19.2
Points From Free Throws 20.8 15.7
Shooting TROY ULL
Field Goals Made 23.1 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 57.7
Field Goal % 43.5% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 20.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 28.4 21.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 73.6%
Ball Control TROY ULL
Rebounds 35.9 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 22.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.5
Turnovers 15.0 13.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.7
Steals 9.7 8.9
Fouls 16.4 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Louisiana

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY ULL
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 71.2
% of Possessions with TROY ULL
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 23.3%
Player Fouled 23.5% 22.0%
Turnover 20.2% 18.3%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 13.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY ULL
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 30.5%