NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR CSU
Points 64.4 75.7
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 22.9
Points From Free Throws 11.9 15.8
Shooting UALR CSU
Field Goals Made 23.7 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 55.2
Field Goal % 41.3% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.9 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 21.1
Free Throw % 73.1% 74.7%
Ball Control UALR CSU
Rebounds 34.2 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 7.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.8
Steals 4.2 5.5
Fouls 16.4 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR CSU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 67.7
% of Possessions with UALR CSU
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 29.0%
Player Fouled 19.7% 23.6%
Turnover 16.6% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR CSU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 24.5%