NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR ARK
Points 72.2 79.2
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.5 22.6
Shooting UALR ARK
Field Goals Made 25.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 55.4
Field Goal % 42.1% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.6 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 15.5 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 29.6
Free Throw % 73.1% 76.5%
Ball Control UALR ARK
Rebounds 36.1 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 8.6
Turnovers 12.0 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 5.0
Steals 4.8 6.0
Fouls 19.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR ARK
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 73.0
% of Possessions with UALR ARK
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 22.4%
Player Fouled 21.0% 25.8%
Turnover 16.1% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR ARK
Shot Blocked 9.2% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 25.2%