NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY ARK
Points 74.0 80.1
Total Points   154.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 16.6
Points From Free Throws 21.5 24.4
Shooting TROY ARK
Field Goals Made 22.8 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 51.3
Field Goal % 39.1% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 16.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 21.5 24.4
Free Throws Attempted 29.3 31.9
Free Throw % 73.4% 76.5%
Ball Control TROY ARK
Rebounds 34.5 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 7.9
Turnovers 12.5 13.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.6
Steals 8.7 7.4
Fouls 21.9 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY ARK
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 70.9
% of Possessions with TROY ARK
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 19.0%
Player Fouled 23.7% 28.7%
Turnover 16.3% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 11.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY ARK
Shot Blocked 11.0% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 25.9%