NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY TTU
Points 71.0 81.5
Total Points   152.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 36.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 26.1
Points From Free Throws 14.3 19.3
Shooting TROY TTU
Field Goals Made 24.4 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 54.6
Field Goal % 41.6% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 14.3 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 24.6
Free Throw % 73.4% 78.5%
Ball Control TROY TTU
Rebounds 32.7 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 7.7 7.0
Fouls 17.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Texas Tech

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY TTU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 69.9
% of Possessions with TROY TTU
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 38.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 27.0%
Player Fouled 19.5% 24.8%
Turnover 17.2% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY TTU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 32.6%