NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR SEMO
Points 79.6 63.2
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 48.8 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 18.2
Points From Free Throws 16.9 11.9
Shooting UALR SEMO
Field Goals Made 29.0 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 60.6
Field Goal % 51.9% 37.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.4 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.7% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 16.9 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 16.8
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.6%
Ball Control UALR SEMO
Rebounds 40.4 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.9
Turnovers 11.4 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.2
Steals 5.5 4.7
Fouls 14.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR SEMO
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 70.6
% of Possessions with UALR SEMO
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.4% 25.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 19.6%
Turnover 15.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR SEMO
Shot Blocked 3.7% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.8% 24.5%