NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY UNCW
Points 75.4 78.2
Total Points   153.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 21.9
Points From Free Throws 17.0 19.1
Shooting TROY UNCW
Field Goals Made 25.2 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.3 55.8
Field Goal % 45.5% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 17.0 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 24.7
Free Throw % 73.4% 77.5%
Ball Control TROY UNCW
Rebounds 34.0 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.3
Turnovers 12.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.4
Steals 6.0 6.7
Fouls 18.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY UNCW
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 71.1
% of Possessions with TROY UNCW
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 26.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 25.5%
Turnover 16.9% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.3% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 31.3%