NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY UALR
Points 75.6 74.0
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 18.1
Points From Free Throws 19.4 15.0
Shooting TROY UALR
Field Goals Made 23.7 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 55.5
Field Goal % 41.0% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 16.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 19.4 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 20.5
Free Throw % 73.4% 73.1%
Ball Control TROY UALR
Rebounds 34.4 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 10.1
Turnovers 12.1 15.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.5
Steals 9.2 6.2
Fouls 16.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY UALR
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 68.9
% of Possessions with TROY UALR
2 Point Attempt 37.3% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 19.7%
Player Fouled 22.0% 21.6%
Turnover 16.5% 20.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 12.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY UALR
Shot Blocked 8.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.8% 31.5%