NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTAH HOU
Points 56.8 78.1
Total Points   134.9
Points From 2-Pointers 22.6 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 26.2
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.2
Shooting UTAH HOU
Field Goals Made 18.2 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 60.5
Field Goal % 34.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 11.3 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 27.6 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.9% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 27.8% 41.1%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 18.8
Free Throw % 62.6% 75.7%
Ball Control UTAH HOU
Rebounds 33.5 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.8
Turnovers 12.4 7.1
Blocked Shots 2.3 6.6
Steals 4.0 7.2
Fouls 15.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTAH HOU
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 72.1
% of Possessions with UTAH HOU
2 Point Attempt 34.6% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 26.6%
Player Fouled 23.0% 23.1%
Turnover 18.4% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTAH HOU
Shot Blocked 11.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 33.3%