NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTRGV NMSU
Points 68.6 73.3
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 17.8
Points From Free Throws 20.4 12.4
Shooting UTRGV NMSU
Field Goals Made 21.3 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 60.2
Field Goal % 39.5% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 20.4 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 28.7 18.9
Free Throw % 71.1% 65.5%
Ball Control UTRGV NMSU
Rebounds 34.7 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 10.1
Turnovers 10.5 10.8
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.0
Steals 6.7 5.6
Fouls 14.4 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Pan Am

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTRGV NMSU
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 72.4
% of Possessions with UTRGV NMSU
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 23.5%
Player Fouled 25.9% 19.6%
Turnover 14.4% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTRGV NMSU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 27.6%