NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTRGV NMSU
Points 59.2 69.9
Total Points   129.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 23.0
Points From Free Throws 12.9 16.0
Shooting UTRGV NMSU
Field Goals Made 20.7 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 56.2
Field Goal % 37.5% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 25.1% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 12.9 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 22.0
Free Throw % 61.7% 72.6%
Ball Control UTRGV NMSU
Rebounds 32.3 43.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 14.7
Turnovers 11.4 13.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.3
Steals 4.9 4.0
Fouls 18.1 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Mex State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTRGV NMSU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 71.1
% of Possessions with UTRGV NMSU
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 37.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 28.5%
Player Fouled 25.5% 26.1%
Turnover 16.4% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTRGV NMSU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 40.2%