NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTRGV HCU
Points 82.7 75.1
Total Points   157.8
Points From 2-Pointers 50.9 47.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 13.6
Points From Free Throws 15.5 13.7
Shooting UTRGV HCU
Field Goals Made 30.9 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 60.1
Field Goal % 49.0% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.5 23.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 45.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 14.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 15.5 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 21.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 64.1%
Ball Control UTRGV HCU
Rebounds 34.5 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.6
Turnovers 9.8 13.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.7
Steals 8.4 5.2
Fouls 15.2 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTRGV HCU
Total Possessions 76.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.2 73.6
% of Possessions with UTRGV HCU
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 16.8%
Player Fouled 18.3% 19.8%
Turnover 12.8% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTRGV HCU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 29.4%