NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTRGV TST
Points 66.3 82.7
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 18.2
Points From Free Throws 15.2 13.9
Shooting UTRGV TST
Field Goals Made 23.1 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 62.1
Field Goal % 41.1% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.8 43.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.1% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 15.2 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 18.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 75.8%
Ball Control UTRGV TST
Rebounds 31.7 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.3
Turnovers 13.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.2
Steals 5.4 8.2
Fouls 14.6 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Tarleton St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTRGV TST
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.9 73.7
% of Possessions with UTRGV TST
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 21.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 19.8%
Turnover 18.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTRGV TST
Shot Blocked 8.5% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 30.9%