NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PRST IDST
Points 67.7 70.2
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 18.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.5
Shooting PRST IDST
Field Goals Made 23.6 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 54.1
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 22.1
Free Throw % 69.4% 70.0%
Ball Control PRST IDST
Rebounds 34.5 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.5
Turnovers 11.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.8
Steals 6.1 5.7
Fouls 18.2 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PRST IDST
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 67.9
% of Possessions with PRST IDST
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 23.9%
Player Fouled 22.1% 26.3%
Turnover 16.1% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PRST IDST
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 28.4%