NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PRST MTST
Points 69.9 75.3
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 26.8
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.2
Shooting PRST MTST
Field Goals Made 23.6 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 54.5
Field Goal % 41.4% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 19.6
Free Throw % 69.4% 72.4%
Ball Control PRST MTST
Rebounds 36.4 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 6.1
Turnovers 11.5 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.5
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 17.7 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Portland St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PRST MTST
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 66.3
% of Possessions with PRST MTST
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 28.7%
Player Fouled 23.7% 24.4%
Turnover 15.9% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PRST MTST
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 19.5%