NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ULM SMU
Points 65.7 83.9
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 40.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 28.0
Points From Free Throws 14.6 15.7
Shooting ULM SMU
Field Goals Made 23.1 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 59.5
Field Goal % 39.5% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.9% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 14.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 22.9
Free Throw % 66.8% 68.6%
Ball Control ULM SMU
Rebounds 34.6 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 12.5
Turnovers 11.7 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.0
Steals 5.8 7.1
Fouls 15.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: UL Monroe

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ULM SMU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 74.0
% of Possessions with ULM SMU
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.9% 29.5%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.5%
Turnover 16.5% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ULM SMU
Shot Blocked 8.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 36.5%