NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ULM ARST
Points 70.8 84.7
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.2 35.3
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.8
Shooting ULM ARST
Field Goals Made 25.4 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 59.6
Field Goal % 42.0% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 47.1 28.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 13.5 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 22.6
Free Throw % 66.8% 70.2%
Ball Control ULM ARST
Rebounds 35.3 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 11.4
Turnovers 8.8 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.5
Steals 5.6 4.5
Fouls 15.3 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ULM ARST
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.3 73.7
% of Possessions with ULM ARST
2 Point Attempt 55.5% 34.3%
3 Point Attempt 15.9% 36.9%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.5%
Turnover 12.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ULM ARST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 32.7%