NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW DART
Points 66.1 56.5
Total Points   122.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.5 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 16.3
Points From Free Throws 10.2 10.4
Shooting MW DART
Field Goals Made 23.6 20.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 49.2
Field Goal % 42.3% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.9 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 10.2 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 15.7
Free Throw % 74.8% 66.3%
Ball Control MW DART
Rebounds 28.7 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.0 7.9
Turnovers 9.3 16.4
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.0
Steals 10.5 4.4
Fouls 14.4 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +1.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW DART
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.5 59.3
% of Possessions with MW DART
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 35.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 19.0% 21.2%
Turnover 13.7% 24.2%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 15.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW DART
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 14.7% 24.9%