NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW GONZ
Points 60.0 83.4
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 26.9 53.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 15.9
Points From Free Throws 10.7 14.3
Shooting MW GONZ
Field Goals Made 20.9 31.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 59.6
Field Goal % 36.9% 53.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 44.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.0% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 14.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 10.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 19.5
Free Throw % 74.8% 73.6%
Ball Control MW GONZ
Rebounds 22.9 45.0
Rebounds - Defensive 16.7 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 13.9
Turnovers 11.4 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.3
Steals 6.7 6.5
Fouls 14.3 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW GONZ
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 72.6
% of Possessions with MW GONZ
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 17.4%
Player Fouled 19.3% 20.4%
Turnover 16.3% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW GONZ
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 16.5% 45.4%