NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW SF
Points 58.7 72.0
Total Points   130.7
Points From 2-Pointers 23.9 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 18.9
Points From Free Throws 14.5 11.2
Shooting MW SF
Field Goals Made 18.7 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 48.9 56.7
Field Goal % 38.3% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 27.5 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.5 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 15.2
Free Throw % 74.8% 74.2%
Ball Control MW SF
Rebounds 24.1 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.6 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 4.5 12.0
Turnovers 14.2 14.3
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.0
Steals 7.5 8.1
Fouls 13.6 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW SF
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 60.1 67.5
% of Possessions with MW SF
2 Point Attempt 36.2% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 23.0%
Player Fouled 24.3% 19.5%
Turnover 20.3% 20.5%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW SF
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 13.7% 38.0%