NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW PROV
Points 57.2 71.2
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 27.1 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 19.8
Points From Free Throws 11.3 15.6
Shooting MW PROV
Field Goals Made 19.8 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 53.1
Field Goal % 36.1% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.6% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 11.3 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 20.9
Free Throw % 74.8% 74.5%
Ball Control MW PROV
Rebounds 25.7 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.5 11.3
Turnovers 12.4 14.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.3
Steals 9.0 6.4
Fouls 16.2 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW PROV
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 67.0
% of Possessions with MW PROV
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 24.5%
Player Fouled 19.9% 23.0%
Turnover 17.6% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 12.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW PROV
Shot Blocked 8.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 14.9% 35.8%