NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW MSM
Points 65.2 65.5
Total Points   130.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 15.6
Points From Free Throws 12.6 10.6
Shooting MW MSM
Field Goals Made 22.6 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 55.1
Field Goal % 41.2% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 12.6 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 14.8
Free Throw % 74.8% 71.9%
Ball Control MW MSM
Rebounds 26.4 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 11.8
Turnovers 12.0 17.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.6
Steals 11.5 6.3
Fouls 12.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW MSM
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 65.8
% of Possessions with MW MSM
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 18.7%
Player Fouled 19.7% 17.9%
Turnover 16.9% 24.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 16.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW MSM
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 16.7% 36.4%