NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW UMASS
Points 67.1 70.6
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 13.5
Points From Free Throws 12.8 18.1
Shooting MW UMASS
Field Goals Made 24.0 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 53.8
Field Goal % 40.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 13.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.2% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 12.8 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 24.4
Free Throw % 74.8% 74.3%
Ball Control MW UMASS
Rebounds 27.3 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.4 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 12.7
Turnovers 11.0 16.3
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.0
Steals 10.8 6.3
Fouls 16.6 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW UMASS
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 69.7
% of Possessions with MW UMASS
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 15.7%
Player Fouled 19.2% 22.6%
Turnover 15.0% 22.3%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 14.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 38.3%