NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW WAG
Points 62.4 58.5
Total Points   121.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 16.0
Points From Free Throws 11.9 10.4
Shooting MW WAG
Field Goals Made 21.9 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 57.0
Field Goal % 42.2% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 28.1 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 40.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 11.9 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 14.9
Free Throw % 74.8% 69.5%
Ball Control MW WAG
Rebounds 31.4 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 12.4
Turnovers 10.6 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.4
Steals 5.9 5.4
Fouls 12.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Wagner

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW WAG
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 61.4 67.0
% of Possessions with MW WAG
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 22.0%
Player Fouled 21.9% 18.3%
Turnover 16.0% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW WAG
Shot Blocked 4.3% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 32.8%