NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW LIU
Points 71.7 59.3
Total Points   131.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 11.4
Points From Free Throws 17.5 12.3
Shooting MW LIU
Field Goals Made 24.1 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 54.7
Field Goal % 44.6% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 42.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 3.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 13.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 17.5 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 18.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 66.9%
Ball Control MW LIU
Rebounds 32.6 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 10.1
Turnovers 11.2 16.1
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.0
Steals 10.5 6.2
Fouls 13.9 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW LIU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 66.5
% of Possessions with MW LIU
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 15.5%
Player Fouled 24.3% 19.2%
Turnover 15.5% 22.2%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 14.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW LIU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 27.9%