NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW BU
Points 65.0 60.7
Total Points   125.7
Points From 2-Pointers 26.5 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 17.7
Points From Free Throws 14.4 12.3
Shooting MW BU
Field Goals Made 21.3 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 50.6 53.9
Field Goal % 42.1% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 27.1 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 43.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 14.4 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 17.1
Free Throw % 74.8% 72.2%
Ball Control MW BU
Rebounds 28.3 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 4.8 11.7
Turnovers 11.4 14.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.1
Steals 8.9 6.4
Fouls 13.7 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW BU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 61.8 65.6
% of Possessions with MW BU
2 Point Attempt 36.4% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 22.6%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.1%
Turnover 16.6% 21.2%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 13.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW BU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 15.0% 33.1%