NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP SMC
Points 58.3 76.7
Total Points   135.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 21.0
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.4
Shooting PEPP SMC
Field Goals Made 20.5 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 56.5
Field Goal % 39.4% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.3% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 13.6 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 18.4
Free Throw % 69.8% 67.1%
Ball Control PEPP SMC
Rebounds 26.5 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 10.8
Turnovers 9.9 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.1
Steals 4.0 6.0
Fouls 14.1 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP SMC
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 68.2
% of Possessions with PEPP SMC
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 18.4% 22.6%
Player Fouled 24.7% 21.2%
Turnover 14.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP SMC
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 17.4% 34.5%