NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP UCSB
Points 73.8 72.0
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 15.0
Points From Free Throws 13.4 16.0
Shooting PEPP UCSB
Field Goals Made 26.9 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 51.8
Field Goal % 46.3% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 13.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 13.4 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 21.4
Free Throw % 69.8% 75.0%
Ball Control PEPP UCSB
Rebounds 31.5 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 6.4
Turnovers 8.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.9
Steals 5.2 4.5
Fouls 15.7 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP UCSB
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 64.7
% of Possessions with PEPP UCSB
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 17.4%
Player Fouled 23.4% 22.4%
Turnover 12.4% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP UCSB
Shot Blocked 3.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 21.9%