NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP CSN
Points 85.1 76.9
Total Points   162.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 25.6
Points From Free Throws 14.7 13.8
Shooting PEPP CSN
Field Goals Made 29.6 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 60.8
Field Goal % 46.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.9% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 14.7 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 18.7
Free Throw % 77.7% 73.6%
Ball Control PEPP CSN
Rebounds 38.4 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 8.4
Turnovers 9.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.5
Steals 4.8 4.6
Fouls 15.5 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP CSN
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 71.8
% of Possessions with PEPP CSN
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 24.4%
Player Fouled 22.1% 20.9%
Turnover 13.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP CSN
Shot Blocked 4.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 23.5%