NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP USD
Points 74.7 71.6
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 19.2
Points From Free Throws 17.1 14.8
Shooting PEPP USD
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 55.6
Field Goal % 45.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 17.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 20.5
Free Throw % 69.8% 72.1%
Ball Control PEPP USD
Rebounds 35.4 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.3
Turnovers 11.6 12.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.9
Steals 5.8 6.4
Fouls 14.8 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP USD
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 68.3
% of Possessions with PEPP USD
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 20.3%
Player Fouled 25.6% 20.5%
Turnover 16.0% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP USD
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 24.7%