NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK TAM
Points 89.8 80.7
Total Points   170.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.8 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.3 25.2
Points From Free Throws 14.6 20.1
Shooting UK TAM
Field Goals Made 32.0 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 70.0
Field Goal % 51.6% 37.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 61.1% 41.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.8 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 14.6 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 28.3
Free Throw % 78.2% 71.3%
Ball Control UK TAM
Rebounds 37.3 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 18.0
Turnovers 10.0 7.5
Blocked Shots 7.4 3.2
Steals 4.3 6.1
Fouls 16.6 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK TAM
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 86.0
% of Possessions with UK TAM
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 28.3%
Player Fouled 20.6% 22.0%
Turnover 13.3% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK TAM
Shot Blocked 4.7% 12.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 37.9%