NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU SHSU
Points 71.0 75.0
Total Points   146.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 40.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 18.4
Points From Free Throws 16.8 15.7
Shooting ACU SHSU
Field Goals Made 24.4 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 57.0
Field Goal % 45.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 16.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 21.7
Free Throw % 73.4% 72.3%
Ball Control ACU SHSU
Rebounds 30.2 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 11.1
Turnovers 11.5 12.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 1.8
Steals 6.2 5.8
Fouls 17.2 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU SHSU
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.1
% of Possessions with ACU SHSU
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 20.7%
Player Fouled 24.4% 23.9%
Turnover 16.0% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU SHSU
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 32.7%