NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KSU BAY
Points 69.5 77.0
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 22.7
Points From Free Throws 15.3 19.5
Shooting KSU BAY
Field Goals Made 23.9 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 57.7
Field Goal % 45.1% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 15.3 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 26.6
Free Throw % 71.9% 73.1%
Ball Control KSU BAY
Rebounds 32.0 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 12.9
Turnovers 13.0 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.3
Steals 5.2 7.6
Fouls 17.7 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KSU BAY
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 74.1
% of Possessions with KSU BAY
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 25.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 24.9%
Turnover 18.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken KSU BAY
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 35.2%