NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ BAY
Points 82.0 73.3
Total Points   155.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 24.9
Points From Free Throws 17.5 14.6
Shooting ARIZ BAY
Field Goals Made 28.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 61.6
Field Goal % 50.0% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 17.5 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 19.3
Free Throw % 77.9% 75.8%
Ball Control ARIZ BAY
Rebounds 37.9 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.4
Turnovers 9.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.3
Steals 5.0 5.5
Fouls 15.0 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ BAY
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 73.1
% of Possessions with ARIZ BAY
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 29.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 21.4%
Turnover 14.0% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ BAY
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 29.5%