NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ ORST
Points 84.6 66.8
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 44.0 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 18.3
Points From Free Throws 18.7 12.0
Shooting ARIZ ORST
Field Goals Made 29.3 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 57.6
Field Goal % 49.1% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 18.7 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 16.4
Free Throw % 71.0% 73.5%
Ball Control ARIZ ORST
Rebounds 41.0 29.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 6.9
Turnovers 10.1 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.7
Steals 7.5 5.6
Fouls 16.0 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ ORST
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 67.6
% of Possessions with ARIZ ORST
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 24.2%
Player Fouled 24.4% 21.8%
Turnover 13.7% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ ORST
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 19.5%