NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK DUKE
Points 81.5 81.2
Total Points   162.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.5 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 28.8
Points From Free Throws 13.0 17.0
Shooting UK DUKE
Field Goals Made 30.4 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 63.5
Field Goal % 49.3% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 13.0 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 23.7
Free Throw % 78.2% 71.6%
Ball Control UK DUKE
Rebounds 35.5 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 11.7
Turnovers 9.9 8.8
Blocked Shots 7.8 3.3
Steals 5.4 6.0
Fouls 14.5 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK DUKE
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 76.3
% of Possessions with UK DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 28.0%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.7%
Turnover 13.5% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK DUKE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 12.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 29.8%