NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW PUR
Points 66.9 78.2
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 21.5
Points From Free Throws 9.1 18.2
Shooting NW PUR
Field Goals Made 24.8 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 50.6
Field Goal % 40.8% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 9.1 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.0 24.9
Free Throw % 75.6% 73.0%
Ball Control NW PUR
Rebounds 26.3 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 9.0
Turnovers 7.0 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.5
Steals 6.3 4.1
Fouls 18.1 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW PUR
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 66.0
% of Possessions with NW PUR
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 22.9%
Player Fouled 18.2% 26.8%
Turnover 10.3% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW PUR
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 32.1%