NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW UCLA
Points 68.8 64.7
Total Points   133.5
Points From 2-Pointers 28.1 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 15.6
Points From Free Throws 14.4 15.6
Shooting NW UCLA
Field Goals Made 22.8 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 49.1
Field Goal % 42.7% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.1 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 14.4 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 20.9
Free Throw % 75.6% 74.3%
Ball Control NW UCLA
Rebounds 30.5 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 7.4
Turnovers 8.2 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.7
Steals 5.3 4.3
Fouls 16.6 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW UCLA
Total Possessions 64.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 62.0
% of Possessions with NW UCLA
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 20.7%
Player Fouled 26.9% 25.6%
Turnover 12.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW UCLA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 24.6%