NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL MSST
Points 66.3 68.8
Total Points   135.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 24.2
Points From Free Throws 12.2 10.2
Shooting VILL MSST
Field Goals Made 22.6 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 57.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 25.2 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 12.2 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 15.5
Free Throw % 79.7% 65.5%
Ball Control VILL MSST
Rebounds 32.4 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 9.4
Turnovers 10.4 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.4
Steals 5.4 6.9
Fouls 14.0 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL MSST
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.2 67.1
% of Possessions with VILL MSST
2 Point Attempt 33.1% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 39.5% 32.8%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.6%
Turnover 15.4% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL MSST
Shot Blocked 6.1% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 26.8%