NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK VAN
Points 87.3 78.1
Total Points   165.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 28.7 24.9
Points From Free Throws 18.4 14.9
Shooting UK VAN
Field Goals Made 29.7 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 65.0
Field Goal % 52.9% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.3% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 42.2% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 18.4 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 20.1
Free Throw % 74.4% 74.1%
Ball Control UK VAN
Rebounds 38.0 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.0
Turnovers 11.8 8.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.2
Steals 4.8 7.3
Fouls 15.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK VAN
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 76.6
% of Possessions with UK VAN
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 32.4%
Player Fouled 22.8% 20.2%
Turnover 15.8% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK VAN
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 24.9%