NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ ORE
Points 82.9 73.0
Total Points   155.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 22.0
Points From Free Throws 16.6 12.1
Shooting ARIZ ORE
Field Goals Made 29.4 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 62.2
Field Goal % 48.7% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 16.6 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 16.6
Free Throw % 71.0% 72.9%
Ball Control ARIZ ORE
Rebounds 40.4 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 8.2
Turnovers 10.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.9
Steals 6.5 6.7
Fouls 15.1 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ ORE
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 72.0
% of Possessions with ARIZ ORE
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 27.7%
Player Fouled 21.5% 20.3%
Turnover 14.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ ORE
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.6% 21.9%